risleyteam@jasonrisley.com

LANGUAGES

Risley Team

Realtors For Living And Investment

call now

949-929-1575

Orange County Housing Report: The Buyer’s Playbook

September 16,2026 | Posted By Jason Risley in Buying

Buyers equipped with the newest housing trends will possess a strategic playbook to excel in the real estate market.
Imagine a football team playing without a coach or a playbook. The players would still need to take the field and compete. However, without insight into their opponent’s defense, the game situation, or the overall strategy, they would be at a major disadvantage. Lacking preparation and guidance, they would likely face a crushing defeat.

Many buyers “take the field” without a playbook and without a clear understanding of the latest housing data, trends, and market conditions. Instead, they rely on their own instincts and interpretations of the market. To succeed and ultimately “score” in securing a home, buyers need to understand the facts and carefully consider current data and statistics before making their next play.

Sales Price Compared to the List Price: 52% of all closed sales in August sold below the asking price. That means that 48% sold at or above the list price. In April 2022, when the COVID housing market produced a critically low supply and insatiable demand, only 13% of all sales closed below the last list price. Today, the housing market is much healthier, with much more supply and muted demand due to higher mortgage rates, resulting in a slight majority of homes selling below the last list price (52%). The median amount shaved off the asking price was $32,500 after 34 days on the market. Yet, 18% of August closed sales sold at the last list price. The median time on the market was only 9 days. Even more revealing, 30% of sales sold above the asking price, with a median of $21,000 over and 9 days on the market. KEY TAKEAWAY: Buyers have to act fast when a home hits the market in excellent condition, nicely upgraded, turnkey, and realistically priced. These homes attract plenty of attention, and they sell quickly, often above the asking price.

Slight Buyer’s Market: Due to rising mortgage rates, lower demand, and an elevated inventory, negotiations will lean more towards buyers for the remainder of the year. The active inventory is at 4,939 homes, up 4% from last year and the highest level for September since 2019’s 6,860. According to Mortgage News Daily, rates were at 5.99% at the end of February and have risen to 7.17% today, the highest reading since January 2025. Higher rates have reduced demand (the number of new pending sales over the prior month) to 1,468, down 8% from last year, when rates were more than 1% lower. The speed of the market, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all listings at the current buying pace), has slowed from 67 days during the spring to 101 days today, its slowest September level since 2011. Last year, it was 90 days. The Zillow Home Price Index has been positive monthly since last October, but is about to dip negative amid lower demand and higher rates. It was negative from March through September in 2025. In 2025, it fell between 0.02% and 0.47%. For a $1 million home, that is a drop of $200 to $4,700, depending on the month. KEY TAKEAWAY: Prices are sticky, so don't expect plunging home values. Rapidly falling prices would require a glut of available homes (it peaked at 5,054 a month ago versus 7,601 in 2019 during the housing recovery) and sellers who must sell (most do not have to sell); instead, as in the seven months in 2025, values will only fall slightly each month.

The Condominium Market is Slower than Detached: Due to higher homeowner association fees, special assessments, reserve requirements, and rising insurance premiums, condominiums are taking longer to sell, applying more pressure to values. For attached properties, the supply is up 17% year-over-year, and demand is down 6%. The Expected Market Time is 115 days today, up from 93 days last year. Meanwhile, the detached inventory is down 5% year-over-year, demand is down 9%, and the Expected Market Time is at 92 days (88 days last year), considerably faster than attached. Since April, attached home values have receded by 0.33%. A $750,000 condominium in April would have dropped to $747,525 by July. Keep in mind, it had been rising for seven months prior, climbing by 1.5% in that time. Detached homes have risen 0.3% since April and were up 2.6% over the previous seven months. KEY TAKEAWAY: The condominium market offers more room to negotiate than detached homes. Nonetheless, condominium values are not plunging, so buyers should not get too overzealous in negotiations.

Knowing the latest trends gives buyers a playbook for navigating today’s market. Before writing an offer, buyers should consider all data unique to that property. How long has it been on the market? Has it been listed before? Has the price changed? What about the condition, location, upgrades, amenities, and property type (detached or attached)? Most importantly, what is the home’s Fair Market Value based on the most recent comparable and pending sales?

With the right insight and strategy, buyers can build a winning game plan, make a well-informed offer, and ultimately “score” by securing the right home.

Active Listings
The inventory decreased by 43 in the past couple of weeks.

The active listing inventory decreased by 43 homes over the past two weeks to 4,939 (-1%). Inventory appears to have peaked a month ago at 5,054. This is the Autumn Market, when the inventory slowly falls as fewer homes hit the market and many unsuccessful sellers from the spring and summer throw in the proverbial towel and delist.

Last year, the inventory was 4,758 homes, down 181 homes (-4%). The 3-year average before COVID (2017 through 2019) was 6,520, an additional 1,581 homes, or 32% more.

Homeowners continue to “hunker down” in their homes, unwilling to move because of their current, underlying, locked-in, low fixed-rate mortgage. This trend has eased from the lows set in 2023. Through August, 21,374 homes were placed on the market in Orange County, 8,010 fewer than the 3-year average before COVID (2017-2019), 27% less. In 2025, 21,889 homes entered the market (2% more), compared with 19,542 in 2024 (9% fewer) and 16,770 in 2023 (22% fewer). Slightly fewer homes have been coming to market this year than last.

Demand
Demand dropped by 4% over the past couple of weeks.

Demand, a snapshot of the number of new pending sales over the prior month, fell from 1,528 to 1,468 over the past couple of weeks, down 60 pending sales (-4%). After bouncing around 6.75% in August, rates have moved noticeably higher over the past couple of weeks because projections suggest the Iran conflict will last at least through the mid-term election and could continue for months longer. Crude oil prices rose along with mortgage rates as the news developed. According to Mortgage News Daily, mortgage rates nationwide are currently 7.17%. As rates rise, it is like tapping on the brakes, and demand slows. Since February, mortgage rates have climbed from 6% to 7.17%, pricing in three to four quarter-point rate hikes. Rates have increased even though the Federal Reserve has left the Federal Funds Rate unchanged. Even if they raise the Fed Funds rate later this week, do not expect mortgage rates to change. They are already priced into today’s prevailing mortgage rate.

Last year, demand was 1,591 pending sales, up 123 (+8%). The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 2,363 pending sales, 61% more than today, or an additional 895.

As the Federal Reserve has indicated, it is essential to monitor all economic releases for signs of a slowdown. These releases can cause mortgage rates to rise or fall, depending on how they compare with market expectations. It is also important to monitor any developments in the Iran conflict and its impact on the oil market, and ultimately inflation, which can also cause mortgage rates to rise or fall. This week, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday, and the Federal Reserve will also meet and hold a press conference to announce its decision on the Federal Funds rate. They will ultimately reveal their appetite to cut rates in the near and distant future. Next week marks the release of the S&P Global Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which tracks the strength of the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors.

Expected Market Time
The Expected Market Time increased by three days over the past couple of weeks.

With the supply of available homes falling by 43 homes, down 1%, and demand falling by 60 pending sales, down 4%, the Expected Market Time (the number of days it takes to sell all Orange County listings at the current buying pace) increased from 98 to 101 days in the past couple of weeks.

Last year, it was 90 days, slightly faster than today. The 3-year average before COVID (2017 to 2019) was 84 days, considerably faster than today.

The Expected Market Time for condominiums and townhomes increased from 109 to 115 days in the past two weeks. It was 93 days last year. For detached homes, the Expected Market Time increased from 90 to 92 days. It was 88 days a year ago. The detached-home market remains significantly faster than the attached-home market.

Luxury End
The luxury market slowed over the past couple of weeks.

Over the past couple of weeks, the luxury inventory for homes priced above $2.5 million (the top 10% of the Orange County housing market) fell from 995 to 979, down 16 (-2%). Luxury demand fell from 208 to 187 pending sales, down 21 (-10%). With demand falling much faster than supply, the Expected Market Time for luxury homes priced above $2.5 million increased from 144 to 157 days, its slowest reading since the end of July.

Year over year, the active luxury inventory is down by 177 homes (-15%), and luxury demand is up by 26 pending sales (+16%). Last year’s Expected Market Time was 215 days, considerably slower than today.

In the past two weeks, the Expected Market Time for homes priced between $2.5 million and $4 million increased from 95 to 106 days. For homes priced between $4 million and $6 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 185 to 195 days. For homes priced above $6 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 352 to 345 days. Luxury is at 157 days overall. At this pace, a seller would be looking at becoming a pending sale around February 2027.

Testimonials

"Jason Risley is an expert in real estate. He has helped me in the negotiation process and I successfully bought the house that is...

- Nikki Nguyen

View All Testimonials

Popular Pages

Location

25950 Acero, Suite 100
Mission Viejo, CA 92691

949-929-1575

DRE# 01755580

Real Estate Websites by Strategic Agent Inc.